Two years ago, the Cleveland Indians picked Jodd Carter in the MLB June amateur draft, and he couldn’t have landed in a more competitive farm system for outfielders.
The 2014 Hilo graduate was selected in the 24th round, and there were six other outfielders (all from college) drafted ahead of him: Bradley Zimmer, first round; Mike Papi, first; Greg Allen, sixth; Taylor Murphy, 18th; Bobby Ison, 21st; and David Armendariz, 23rd.
All six are still with the Indians, who’ve recently hit home runs with their first-round picks on outfielders.
Cleveland’s 2013 first-round selection, Clint Frazier, was part of a trade package to the New York Yankees for ace reliever Andrew Miller.
The team’s 2012 first-rounder, Tyler Naquin from Texas A&M, spent five years in the minors and made his MLB debut this season. In 100 games, he has hit .297 with a .373 on-base average and .899 OPS (on-base plus slugging), an outstanding slash line.
The goal of a farm system is two-fold: develop cheap labor for the big league club and as potential trade bait. In that sense, Cleveland’s director of player development or farm director Carter Hawkins added gold stars to his resume.
The outfield duo’s departures, one by trade, the other by promotion, opened up roster spots in Cleveland’s farm system.
The 2014 half-dozen older farmhands have had varying degrees of success as they all fight to climb the minor league ladder.
Carter, 20, played at three A-ball clubs, starting at short-season Mahoning Valley, earning a promotion to Lake County, and playing two games at Advanced A Lynchburg.
The Indians have been patient with Carter, who went to rookie ball as a 17-year-old in 2014 and later headed to instructional league.
In 2015, he was held back in extended spring training, then repeated rookie ball in the Arizona league and finished at Mahoning Valley with a .233/.255/.607 slash line.
It was the same thing this year with better progress. He was in extended spring training, where no games are played, only drills and instruction.
Carter did a three-stop tour and finished at .264/.352/.728 for the year. He was 2.1 years younger in age difference at Mahoning, 2.5 at Lake County, and 3.5 at Lynchburg.
He had better production than most of his 2014 draft classmates, despite being much younger. Cleveland waited two years to push Carter, and he responded.
It’s likely the Indians will assign Carter to Lake County, a full-season league, in 2017 out of spring training.
It’ll be a competitive environment at spring training because the Indians continued their drafting habit, taking Georgia prep outfielder Will Benson in the first round in the 2016 June draft and a bunch of other outfielders, six who signed.
In three years, Carter has a career slash line of .262/.334/.705. He has nine homers and 12 stolen bases. He has 55 walks and 134 strikeouts.
Carter hasn’t displayed a premium skill such as contact rate, power, or speed. But he hasn’t been completely overmatched either. A lot of outfielders make a pretty good living in the big leagues with the same profile.
In scouting, players are graded on a 20-80 scale with 50 as MLB average. Players are also assigned two grades on present and potential tools.
The latter is an attractive attribute for Carter, who at age 20, would be a junior in college. He’s already hitting against pro pitching that is unmatched compared to what he would face in college.
One of Cleveland’s biggest hits in drafting a collegiate outfielder is Honolulu’s Ka’ai Tom, a fifth-round pick in 2015 out Kentucky. Like Carter, he isn’t on mlb.com’s Top 30 Indians prospect list, mainly because Tom is just 5 feet 9, an inch shorter than Carter.
Most websites with top prospects lists, like mlb.com or baseballamerica.com, aren’t always accurate. MLB organizations have two prospects lists, one created by the farm director for team use and another fed to websites. The latter list sometimes has overhyped prospects as potential trade bait. The team’s list contains the best hidden gems.
Tom bears watching because he can swing the bat and get on base, a valuable tool in today’s sabermetric Ivy League world. Last year, he put up a .283/.374/.777 slash line at Mahoning Valley. Tom produced an incredible .323/.446/.881 line at Lake County, a higher level, in 2016.
For 2017, Tom will likely get assigned to Advanced A Lynchburg, where if Carter continues his path they could be teammates and ladder-climbing competitors as well.
The toughest competition will start when Carter, Tom, and the 2014 draft class outfielders and others challenge for spots on Double-A Akron’s roster.
That’s the first single level (Triple A is the other) where an organization’s top prospects distinguish themselves, no matter how old or young they are.
