As forecast, El Nino has dried out normally rainy Hilo so far in 2016. It’s also brought some record daytime high temperatures.
As of Monday, only 0.49 inches of rain had fallen this year at Hilo International Airport. That’s 4.21 inches below the normal 4.7 inches Hilo normally receives by Jan. 18.
Afternoon high temperatures made the record books twice this month: Jan. 10 with 87 degrees, eclipsing the previous high of 85, set in 1980, 1997 and 2010; and Jan. 12 with 85 degrees, tying the high for that date set in 1977 and 1996.
The average daytime high for a January day in Hilo is 79 degrees, but only once this month has the mercury failed to rise to 80 degrees or hotter. That was Jan. 6, when the high was 78. The average daytime high so far this year is 83.2 degrees.
“Even though it’s been warmer than normal, it still feels pretty comfortable outside because of the really dry air,” National Weather Service forecaster Ian Morrison said Monday.
There also has been a definite chill in the nighttime air, but no record-setting low temperatures have been recorded so far this month in Hilo. The only overnight low below 60 degrees so far this year was Saturday, when the mercury fell to 59. The average nighttime low temperature this month is 63.2 degrees, just slightly cooler than the norm of 64.
Morrison attributed the slightly cooler than normal nights to El Nino, as well.
“You get the evaporation off of the skin and it feels a little bit chilly at night with the same conditions but cooler temperatures,” he said.
Winds are forecast to remain light today and during the day Wednesday, so there is no rain in the immediate forecast.
“We’ll have a day or two of trade winds toward the Thursday and Friday time frame. So, that might bring back some of the more normal Hilo showers,” Morrison said.
The seven-day forecast on the NWS website notes a 20 to 60 percent chance of rain in Hilo for Wednesday night, and a 60 percent chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night, dropping to 40 percent Friday and 30 percent Friday night.
“For the second half of the week, into Saturday, it looks like there will be some light to moderate showers,” Morrison said.
Without the trades, the volcanic haze known as vog also is in the forecast for today and Wednesday.
“With the light winds, (the vog) is going to pool around the source,” Morrison said. “Once we get the trade winds back, I don’t see it getting into Hilo.”
The Vog Measurement and Prediction Project (VMAP) website, which is operated by the University of Hawaii at Manoa, noted “good” levels of sulfur dioxide, or SO2, a noxious gas emitted by the activity of Kilauea Volcano, islandwide, at mid-afternoon Monday.
The measurements for so-called other “aerosol” pollutants were also at “good” levels of 9 or fewer micrograms per cubic meter of air, with the exception of Ocean View with 26 micrograms and Kailua-Kona with 23 micrograms, both slightly elevated levels described as “moderate.”
The dry weather also has caused an uptick in water deliveries to rural areas, mainly in Puna and Ka‘u where many households are dependent upon rain catchment systems as their main source of water.
“Any El Nino winter is going to be drier than normal,” Morrison said. “We were lucky to have a wetter than normal summer, though, so hopefully people saved some of that water. But it’s going to be a dry winter.”
Tammy Ortiz of K&T Water Haulers said Monday that even though the dry start to 2016 has been predicted for months, people still are consuming water as they did in December, when more than 14 inches of rain fell.
“When we have a long spell of rain and then we have a couple of days where it’s dry, people don’t change their habits of water usage,” Ortiz said. “So prematurely, they’re getting low or out of water already. But we’ve had rain for several months and then we have no rain for the past three days or so, and we’ve been running (delivery trucks) nonstop for the past three days.”
Ortiz said there’s not a waiting list yet for deliveries.
“Let people know we can come when they call,” she said.
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
