The Island Intelligencer: Keep an eye on nonstate actors

As a young analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, where I prepared for our country’s leaders assessments on the national security implications of international events, I developed an appreciation for the fact that the game of geopolitics, frequently equated to chess, usually has at play some pieces that are not fully visible on the board. Identifying these unconventional tokens and realizing how they move facilitate our efforts to understand why a given situation unfolds the way it does and to develop a more informed appreciation for possible outcomes.