A developing weak El Nino could result in a slightly busier than normal hurricane season this year for Hawaii, forecasters said Wednesday.
Five to eight tropical cyclones, which includes depressions, storms and hurricanes, are expected to impact the Central North Pacific basin, where Hawaii is located, from June 1-Nov. 30, said Central Pacific Hurricane Center Director Chris Brenchley.
The Honolulu-based weather center forecast a 40 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season. A “normal” season sees four to five cyclones pass through or develop within the basin, which spans an area north of the equator from 140 degrees west longitude to the international date line.
Should El Nino, which correlates with warmer ocean temperature that cause increased storm activity, come into play, it could be strong enough to produce an above-normal season. If it doesn’t develop, the number of storms could be on the lower end of the forecast, Brenchley said. Since 1970, during El Nino conditions there have been an average of six to seven storms annually and during non-El Nino conditions, about four per year.
Whether there’s one or a record-breaking 15 — as happened two years ago, with the number actually being 16 if a storm that formed in late December 2015 is counted — the time to get storm ready has come with the official start of hurricane season just days away.
“We find ourselves another year older and, hopefully, another year wiser,” Brenchley said. “We have had several close calls and direct impacts from hurricanes within the last several years. We’ve experienced some of those impacts. We must take the time to prepare so that we can be ready should those impacts come back to our state.
“It’s a simple message: The time to prepare for hurricane season is now.”
Preparation includes developing a family evacuation plan and well-stocked emergency kit, attending community preparedness events and keeping abreast of the latest weather information by signing up for alerts and following local media.
“We are a very isolated island chain. … We must be prepared to be self-sufficient for potentially many days to several weeks before help arrives,” Brenchley said.
Last year, four to seven tropical cyclones were forecast to pass through the Central Pacific. Six formed during the season, in addition to Hurricane Pali, an out-of-season storm that churned from Jan. 7-14, 2016. Just one made landfall on the Big Island.
Tropical Storm Darby struck July 23, passing over Mauna Loa’s slopes and bringing several inches of rain to mostly East Hawaii areas, as well as high wind and surf. The storm also resulted in power outages and the grounding of the Spirit of Kona vessel in Kailua-Kona.
The 2017 hurricane season also marks the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki making a direct hit as a Category 4 storm on Kauai, resulting in six deaths, more than 100 injuries and more than $3 billion in damage.
Named Central Pacific tropical cyclones for 2017 will begin with Walaka, according to the center. Hawaiian names are assigned only to storms that form in the Central Pacific area. Named Eastern Pacific storms began with Adrian earlier this month.
Email Chelsea Jensen at cjensen@westhawaiitoday.com.
