The National Weather Service still was expecting the center of Hurricane Madeline to pass just shy of South Point today in a forecast issued Tuesday evening.
But the cyclone could deliver more than a glancing blow.
Tropical storm conditions will arrive as early as this morning, with heavy rain and hazardous wind and surf slamming much of the island through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions could be seen this evening.
The weather service said Madeline will pass “dangerously close” to the island today, likely as a category 1 hurricane, and its counterclockwise motion will ensure windward areas aren’t spared.
Windward areas could see some of the heaviest rains, potentially creating flash floods and mudslides, according to Hawaii County Civil Defense. Damaging surf also could hit east-facing shores by today.
The weather service said Hilo has a 4 percent chance of experiencing hurricane conditions. That jumps to 16 percent at South Point.
“You really should be prepared now,” said Leigh Anne Eaton, weather service meteorologist, Tuesday afternoon. “It will be heading on the doorstep (today).”
Shelters opened Tuesday evening at 14 schools on the island after Gov. David Ige issued an emergency proclamation.
Some areas could see winds as high as 60 to 80 mph — strong enough to cause widespread damage and turn loose outdoor items into projectiles — with higher gusts possible, the weather service said.
Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected with isolated amounts of near 15 inches. Surf will peak tonight at 15 to 25 feet with storm surges of 1 to 4 feet.
Water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if peak surges occur during high tide.
The arrival of Hurricane Lester, expected to pass north of the island Saturday, could frustrate efforts to restore power knocked out by Madeline, said Rhea Lee-Moku, Hawaii Electric Light Co. spokeswoman.
“Do we repair things right after Madeline and then only to have them damaged by Lester again?” she said. “That’s something we evaluate.” Safety for employees also is a major concern, Lee-Moku added.
Ed Teixeira, the county’s Interim Civil Defense Administrator, said he was hoping Friday will provide enough of a break between the storms for recovery efforts.
Coastal areas might not get a break from Lester as it also is expected to bring heavy surf to the island. What’s not clear is whether it will pass close enough to also bring more heavy rain and wind.
“Surf could be another factor of Lester,” Eaton said. “It has ramped up as such a strong storm.”
Lester was a category 4 hurricane Tuesday evening with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, but it is expected to weaken to a minor hurricane by this weekend.
Lee-Moku said HELCO spent $14 million on tree-trimming since Tropical Storm Iselle in 2014, which should reduce damage to its transmission lines.
She said power outages or fallen power lines can be reported to HELCO at 969-6666 or via Facebook and Twitter.
The state Department of Transportation said it was preparing to close the Umauma Bridge on Highway 19 as a precaution.
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
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CLOSURES
• All Hawaii Island public schools (Wednesday and Thursday).
• Charter schools (Wednesday): Connections Public Charter School, Hawaii Academy of Arts & Science, Ka Umeke Kaeo, Kanu o ka Aina New Century, Ka‘u Learning Academy, Ke Ana Laahana, Kua o ka La New Century, Na Wai Ola, West Hawaii Explorations Academy.
• Charter schools (Thursday):Connections Public Charter School, Kanu o ka Aina, Kua o ka La, Ka‘u Learning Academy.
• Charter schools (Friday): Kua o ka La.
• Kamehameha Schools.
• St. Joseph School.
• University of Hawaii campuses and facilities.
• Hawaii Volcanoes National Park: Kulanaokuaiki Campground, Hilina Pali Road, back country sites, Mauna Loa Road from Kipukapuaulu to overlook, Namakanipaio Campground, coastal lava viewing area, Jaggar Museum and Kilauea Visitor Center.
• Hilo and Kawaihae harbors.
• Hawaii Island courthouses.
• All County of Hawaii facilities, offices and services, including Hele-On Bus service, solid waste transfer stations and landfills (Wednesday).
SHELTERS
• Hilo High
• Honokaa High
• Kalanianaole Elementary and Intermediate
• Ka‘u High
• Keaau High
• Kealakehe High
• Kohala High
• Konawaena High
• Laupahoehoe Public Charter School
• Mountain View Elementary
• Pahoa High
• Waiakea High
• Waikoloa Elementary
• Waimea Intermediate
