In an increasingly partisan capital, the Congressional Budget Office is one of the few institutions generally considered free of any political agenda. The CBO has worked that way for decades because that’s what the law requires and because it has
In an increasingly partisan capital, the Congressional Budget Office is one of the few institutions generally considered free of any political agenda. The CBO has worked that way for decades because that’s what the law requires and because it has been headed by a series of impressive and strongly independent fiscal policy analysts, the most recent being Douglas Elmendorf, whose four-year term expired Jan. 3.
Elmendorf’s record as an honest broker was such that we hoped the new bicameral Republican majority would reappoint him, even though he got the job under a Democratic majority in 2009. Still, the GOP leadership was within its rights to choose a new director, despite anxiety by some who thought that the GOP was seeking a shill for its more controversial fiscal theories, including the notion that tax cuts always more than pay for themselves in greater economic growth.
Their selection Friday of Keith Hallis a welcome indication that Republican leaders understand the value of intellectual honesty at the CBO. Hall brings the right credentials: A research economist with a long-standing interest in federal policy, he has served in a variety of wonkish government posts that called on him to perform economic analysis and staff management. The most significant was his four-year stint between 2008 and 2012 as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency in charge of measuring inflation, unemployment and other vital economic indicators. This experience — overlapping the George W. Bush and Obama administrations — instilled a strong interest in the problem of declining labor force participation, one of the most pressing issues facing the U.S. economy.
To be sure, Hall’s work reveals a decidedly conservative take on that question and others. He opposes raising the federal minimum wage, believing it will price low-skilled workers out of the job market. His general prescription for improving labor-force participation revolves around reducing regulations on employers — including the burden allegedly imposed by President Barack Obama’s health-care reform. Democrats and liberal- leaning economists would obviously dispute that — but their side didn’t win the 2014 election. And agree or disagree with them, Hall’s views appear to be moderately phrased and well within the conservative mainstream. His power to cook the books would be limited in any case by the internal process at the CBO, which relies heavily on professional staff input.
It remains to be seen how the CBO will function under Hall, given the GOP’s determination to cut taxes and abolish Obamacare — and the party’s undoubted wish for numbers that agree with its policies. We hope and expect the new director will stand up to partisan pressure, if any, with the same fortitude that Elmendorf repeatedly showed. For now, though, it’s cause for hope that the GOP picked a pro to do a job in which nothing less than professionalism will suffice.
— Washington Post
