A fork in the flow

PAHOA — The June 27 lava flow hasn’t shown signs of slowing yet as it approaches a low spot that will determine its future course.

As of Wednesday morning, the flow’s leading edge had advanced another 420 yards and was about 2.5 miles from Highway 130.

It also was about 550 yards from a patch of flat terrain that could have a significant impact on where it goes from there and who could be in its path.

At that spot, two lines of steepest descent that help identify the flow’s likely direction, nearly converge.

One path, which it currently is following, takes a northeast track through Pahoa Marketplace, while the other follows a more northerly route that eventually reaches the southeastern edge of Hawaiian Paradise Park.

Each has the potential for crossing the highway, disrupting lives and destroying property, but Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Geophysicist Mike Poland said it likely won’t be clear which path the flow picks until early next week.

That’s if it chooses only one.

“When it arrives in that area it will not immediately, at least the way we are forecasting, it will not immediately pick a pathway,” Poland said. “It will probably sit there for possibly a couple of days before one of those sort of dominates over the other.”

Until then, Puna largely will be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

That’s not a position Steve Avery, owner of Pahoa Battery &Propane, expected to be in when he opened his store in the marketplace a decade ago.

“I never expected it to come right through Pahoa before,” he said. “I always thought this was a safe spot.”

Avery said he has a few other properties he could move to, but he’s planning to stay put until he has no other choice. The propane supply can be moved out quickly, he said.

“We are going to be open, open, open,” Avery said.

From the shopping center, a wisp of smoke could be seen rising beyond nearby trees, but otherwise the molten threat remained out of sight. Many shoppers were carrying on as usual.

“We’re just concerned about how we’re going to get to Hilo,” said Leilani Estates resident Helena Brewer, while standing outside Malama Market.

Mike Becerril, also of Leilani Estates, said he expects the flow front to stall again — as it did in late October — just shy of Pahoa Village Road.

“It would be a shame to have it come down here because there’s no other alternative,” he added.

Malama Market is one of two main grocery stores in Pahoa. The other is Island Naturals closer to the center of town.

Sheryl Toda, Malama Market spokeswoman, said the store plans to continue serving lower Puna at satellite locations if it is forced to close. Those would offer “key products” such as rice, water and canned goods, she said.

Darryl Oliveira, Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator, said his office is continuing outreach efforts with marketplace merchants to keep them informed of the situation and discuss response plans.

For now, the arrival of lava there is not a sure thing, he said.

“We told them yesterday it does not in anyway indicate the threat is imminent,” Oliveira said.

But if the flow continues to advance more to the north, the number of people impacted could increase, he said.

“If it passes south of Kahakai Boulevard versus north, there is a significant difference on the transportation routes that are affected there,” Oliveira said.

“As we said, it’s very difficult to forecast with any certainty which path of steepest descent it will take or what’s going to happen in the near future.

“… The further north it goes … it may affect more people and other subdivisions and we’ll just have to watch it closely.”

The next lava flow community meeting is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. today at Pahoa High School cafeteria.

Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.