As the Trump administration continues to slash federal spending, rumored cuts to science funding has left the future of Big Island astronomy up in the air.
The National Science Foundation, the federal agency that funds science and engineering research, fired 10% of its workforce in February to comply with an executive order aimed at reducing the federal workforce.
Since then, rumors have abounded that Trump, amidst a long string of federal downsizing, was eyeing deeper cuts for NSF and NASA, with billions of dollars and thousands of employees potentially on the chopping block.
With federal funding up in the air, several Maunakea observatories that rely on NSF grants could be impacted, said Doug Simons, director of the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy.
“We’re in a state of bewilderment,” Simons said, estimating IFA gets about two-thirds of its funding from NSF or NASA, and that many of the summit observatories rely heavily on grants from those agencies as well.
Gemini Observatory gets about $24 million from NSF each year, with about half of that going to Gemini North in Hawaii (Gemini South is in Chile), according to an NSF statement. Simons estimated that Gemini North gets roughly 60% of its budget from NSF.
While it is still too early to predict how cuts to NSF will impact the observatories’ operations, Simons said the situation could eliminate the U.S. as a competitive player in global astronomy.
“Maunakea is by far the most scientifically productive ground-based astronomy site on U.S. soil,” he said. “There’s still some presence in Arizona, on Kitt Peak, but the vast majority of the U.S.’ interests are on Maunakea.”
If the Maunakea observatories are cut too deeply, Simons said the clearest window into the northern hemisphere sky would be lost, leaving a colossal blind spot for astronomers. Space-based instruments, he said, cannot make up for robust ground-based coverage.
The loss would not be a mere abstract blow for academia, Simons added. Last year, astronomers using UH’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System detected an asteroid that had a non-negligible chance of striking Earth in 2032 with enough energy to destroy a city.
When ATLAS, which receives federal funding, detects an object that potentially could hit Earth, it immediately sends the object’s data to the Maunakea observatories for further analysis.
“So, when we all saw the probability of impact going down, that was because of work done on Maunakea,” Simons said. As of late February, the asteroid’s impact chances were estimated to be 0.004%.
Any possible cuts to NSF also are likely to have a chilling effect on the agency’s investment into its Extremely Large Telescope Project, which would involve the construction of either the Thirty Meter Telescope on Maunakea, the Giant Magellan Telescope in Chile, or both.
The NSF board last year recommended that the agency only invest $1.6 billion into the ELT, which likely would necessitate choosing one telescope over the other.
TMT Project Manager Fengchuan Liu acknowledged that the future of the budget remains uncertain, but reiterated that TMT remains the better investment option over GMT.
“TMT is still the only next-generation observatory planned for the northern hemisphere,” Liu said, adding the project awaits NSF’s final design review.
While Simons said that all federal agencies, not just NSF, are holding off on making large investments in long-term projects while budgets are still in flux, Liu said he believes investing in ELT will still be a priority for NSF.
“Yes, the federal budget is uncertain,” Liu said. “But I think NSF will remain charged to maintain American scientific dominance.”
An NSF spokesperson declined to speculate about future funding.
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
