Xi’s bet on Putin looks even more risky after Russian rebellion

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Xi Jinping’s gamble on a “no limits” friendship with Vladimir Putin has looked like it could backfire. This weekend’s brief uprising against Moscow again underscored the risks facing the Chinese leader.

China gave a vote of confidence in Putin on Sunday, noting the Russian president’s strong relationship with Xi while saying it was necessary to “safeguard the common interests of both sides” amid a “complex and severe international situation.” Asked directly about Putin’s deal with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, China’s Foreign Ministry said it supports Russia’s bid to maintain “national stability” in dealing with an “internal affair.”

But despite the show of support, the stunning challenge to Putin’s authority instantly raised questions about the long-term implications for Xi — from his ideological fight with the U.S. to his own grip on power, which was questioned last year during rare nationwide protests against Covid restrictions.

“This chaotic sort of conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “It highlights the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it highlights the weakness of a man President Xi had sought to show himself close to and, if it leads to the end of the war, then it will free up some Western assets to refocus on China.”

While Xi consolidated power last year securing a precedent-defying third term, and faces no immediate threat to his rule, his diplomatic support for Putin in the wake of the war has inextricably linked the two men. They both oversee authoritarian governments that possess nuclear weapons and oppose democratic values espoused by the U.S. and its allies.

Even the prospect that Putin may be forced from power — a scenario that looked plausible before Prigozhin suddenly turned his forces away from Moscow — risks rippling through the establishment in Beijing.

Over the weekend, a Weibo account operated by the People’s Liberation Army published a post about how Mao Zedong revamped the military in 1927 to ensure the Communist Party retained absolute control, highlighting the risk in Putin’s reliance on private armies like the one run by Prigozhin. Although Xi has sought to consolidate his grip on China’s armed forces, it’s uncertain whether he has total command.

When U.S. President Joe Biden referred to Xi as a dictator last week, he claimed Xi was embarrassed because he didn’t know an alleged spy balloon was traveling over the U.S. in February — an incident that prompted relations between the world’s biggest economies to spiral.

“What’s happened in Russia reinforces the message that Xi Jinping needs to continue to maintain a very, very tight grip and continue to be suspicious of the military,” said Tai Ming Cheung, director of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and author of the book Fortifying China: The Struggle to Build a Modern Defense Economy.