NWS predicts four to seven tropical cyclones for hurricane season

Five years ago, Hurricane Lane, a category 5 hurricane, passed within 150 miles of the main Hawaiian Islands. It set the state record for tropical cyclone rainfall (58 inches) and caused over $7 million in damage.

There is a 50% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to the outlook from NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which are divisions of the National Weather Service.

The outlook, released today, also indicates a 35% chance for near-normal activity, and only a 15% chance of a below-normal hurricane season.


For the 2023 season, four to seven tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region, which includes Hawaii.

A near-normal season has four or five tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

“Hurricane season in the Central Pacific region is expected to be slightly busier this year, compared to a normal season,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. “A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of El Nino this summer, which typically contributes to an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific Ocean basin.”

The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii. The Central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

“The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down. Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years,” said Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, in a statement. “It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat.”

See Friday’s Tribune-Herald for more about the upcoming hurricane season.

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