There have been five Category 5 hurricanes — all of which made landfall — in the Atlantic since 2016. Five.
Before that, the Atlantic basin went eight years without one of these monster tropical cyclones. Eight.
The ugly truth, according to climate scientists, is that we have no reason not to expect another Dorian. Or another Harvey. Or another Michael.
A 20-page synopsis of current research about global warming and hurricanes by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory summarizes that sea level rise, “which very likely has a substantial human contribution,” will cause higher coastal inundation levels for tropical storms. This means bigger waves and higher storm surge that reaches farther inland.
We need to be brave and bold not only in our thinking, but in our actions: To truly encourage alternate energy usage and create tax incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate and storm experts warn the conduct of recent Category 4 and 5 hurricanes — flooding rains, escalating intensities and a swollen storm surge riding on rising seas — is consistent with what climate change models predict will happen more often as the world warms.
“It’s kind of like your chickens coming home to roost,” Jim Kossin, a climate scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Palm Beach Post’s Kimberly Miller. “Dorian is all those things we predict: a rapid intensifier, it was a strong storm that maintained its strength for a long time, and it stalled. It’s a poster child for how bad things can get.”
We are running out of time to curb man-made impacts on climate.
According to the GFDL report, the global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach Category 4 and 5 strengths is likely to increase because of human-caused warming throughout the 21st century.
Again, here is where bold, brave leadership could show how to begin combating these long-term impacts. Ideas could include placing rooftop solar on every state-owned building and beginning to explore limiting coastal development.
We invite other ideas.
On Sept. 23, 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg told world leaders during the UN Climate Action Summit in New York, starkly:
“You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.”
A week ago, Thunberg addressed a congressional committee in Washington.
“I want you to listen to the scientists,” she said. “And I want you to unite behind the science. And then I want you to take real action.”
Out of the mouths of babes.
