In February 1924, the surface of the lava lake at Halema‘uma‘u dropped rapidly and disappeared from view.
Throughout March and April, the crater floor subsided as magma moved out of the summit reservoir into the East Rift Zone. By May 6 that year, the floor of Halema‘uma‘u had dropped more than 180 m (about 600 ft) below the crater rim.
A series of explosions began during the night of May 10-11, 1924. The violent explosions tossed large chunks of rock onto the caldera floor and sent ash plumes more than 2 km (1 mi) high. The trigger for the explosions was inferred to be heated groundwater.
The thinking at the time was that after the magma drained away, liquid water (groundwater) flowed into the conduit and was rapidly heated to steam. Rock falls sporadically choked the emptied conduit, trapping steam until sufficient pressure built up to blast out the rocky debris.
Fast-forward to May 2018 (94 years later), when the scene was frighteningly similar.
Magma drained from Kilauea’s shallow summit reservoir and moved into the East Rift Zone. The summit lava lake was no longer visible May 10, and likely dropped below the water table May 11-12, 2018. Explosive activity was considered a strong possibility given what happened in 1924.
But, while moderate explosions and associated ash plumes did occur in 2018, major explosions like those of 1924 did not. Why not? Was groundwater to blame, or was it something else?
There is much more to the story.
Within a year after the 1924 eruption, researchers developed a conceptual model for what was happening beneath the surface to produce the explosions. The 1925 model relied on several key factors about the depth of the water table and how quickly groundwater could flow into the area.
These factors have since been updated and reanalyzed.
A deep (1261 m/4,140 ft) research well drilled about 800 m (0.5 mi) south of Halema‘uma‘u in 1973 found that the water table was 506 m (1,660 ft) below the surface, not at sea level, as was thought in 1925. At that depth, rock permeability (a measure of how easy it is for groundwater to flow through rock) is not “extremely permeable” as the 1925 model suggested.
Samples from the 1973 drillhole showed that vesicles, or small holes in the rock, have been partially filled by minerals. So, at a depth of about 506 m (1,660 ft) — the depth of groundwater — many of the small, narrow pathways that would allow groundwater to move freely are plugged.
The power of modern computing also helps develop a greater understanding of what is possible. Researchers recently used a computer model called HYDROTHERM (https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/software/hydrotherm/), which can accept different inputs to assess how groundwater would likely move in unique environments. The results show it would take more time than anticipated in 1925 for groundwater to flow into the conduit after the lava lake has drained.
In fact, it might take a lot more time. Modern modeling techniques, along with data unavailable in 1925, yields a view that liquid water inflow into the conduit can be delayed by months to years.
The evolving thinking is that when a lava lake drains below the water table, the rocks around the conduit remain very hot. Any liquid water creeping into the zone of hot rock is converted to steam before it reaches the conduit. In essence, the hot rock zone maintains a heat barrier that blocks groundwater from moving toward the conduit.
In 2018, scientists issued hazard notifications about the potential for explosive eruptions at Kilauea’s summit based, in part, on the 1925 conceptual model. Scientists are now re-evaluating assumptions about the cause of explosive activity under conditions of a draining summit lava lake.
New data and techniques are being used to understand more about the 2018 explosions. A currently favored idea is that gas from the retreating magma, rather than groundwater steam, powered the explosions. This idea is being used to reconsider what we understand about the eruptions (and hazards) of Kilauea Volcano’s past, present and future.
For more information about this research, the Journal of Geophysical Research article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB017133.
Volcano activity updates
Kilauea is not erupting. Rates of seismicity, deformation and gas release have not changed significantly during the past week.
Two earthquakes with three or more felt reports occurred in Hawaii during the past week. At 2:18 a.m. March 20, a magnitude-3 earthquake occurred 12 km (7 mi) south of Honokaa at 31 km (19 mi) depth. At 5:16 p.m. March 19, a magnitude-3.2 earthquake occurred 14 km (9 mi) south of Fern Acres at 6 km (4 mi) depth.
Deformation signals are consistent with refilling of Kilauea Volcano’s deep East Rift Zone magma reservoir. Sulfur dioxide emission rates on the ERZ and at Kilauea’s summit remain low and have been steady during the past several weeks.
A GPS station on the north flank of Pu‘u ‘O‘o has been showing steady slumping of the crater’s edge. This motion is not directly related to magmatic activity, but is interpreted to be sliding of the unstable edge of the Pu‘u ‘O‘o cone. Small collapses at Pu‘u ‘O‘o have occurred since the eruption because of instability.
Hazardous conditions still exist at the lower ERZ and summit of Kilauea. Residents and visitors in the lower Puna District and Kilauea summit areas should stay informed and heed Hawaii County Civil Defense closures, warnings, and messages (http://www.hawaiicounty.gov/active-alerts). HVO continues to closely monitor Kilauea for any sign of increased activity.
The USGS Volcano Alert level for Mauna Loa remains at Normal.
Visit HVO’s website (https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo) for past Volcano Watch articles, Kilauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano photos, maps, recent earthquake info, and more. Call 808-967-8862 for weekly Kilauea updates. Email questions to askHVO@usgs.gov.
Volcano Watch (https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hvo/hvo_volcano_watch.html) is a weekly article and activity update written by U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists and affiliates.