Iran’s short-range weapons pose a threat to US bases

WASHINGTON — Iran vowed to retaliate against American bases in the region even before the United States attacked its nuclear sites Saturday, and U.S. intelligence agencies have long warned that the military should prepare for such a response.

While Iran will likely attempt a fierce barrage, U.S. and Israeli officials said before the attacks Saturday that Israel’s strikes in recent days had severely damaged Iran’s ability to mount attacks, wiping out launchers and damaging military bases.

In more than a week of fighting before the U.S. attacks, the Israeli air force struck Iranian missile launchers and launch teams, and Iran depleted its stockpile of medium-range missiles, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

In an address from the White House on Saturday, President Donald Trump warned Iran against further actions, and demanded that Tehran “make peace.”

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said. “But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”

Iran could ignore Trump’s comments and deploy its remaining medium-range missiles, or its short-range weapons and cruise missiles, which could be used to threaten U.S. bases in the Middle East, according to experts.

Nicholas Carl, who studies Iran for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, said those weapons have too short a range to be directly fired against Israel. But a number of U.S. bases are within range.

In addition to cruise missiles and rockets, Iran also has an ample supply of attack drones, which could be particularly effective if they are smuggled to Shiite militias in Iraq and fired at U.S. bases there, U.S. officials said. And the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which reached a ceasefire agreement with the United States last month, could resume its attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

“Iran has many ways of imposing pressure on the West and the international community writ large,” Carl said in an interview before the strike on the three nuclear sites.

U.S. officials said Iran would probably use its bases in the southern part of the country to launch missile attacks on U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.

The fighting has strained Israel’s supply of missile interceptors and Iran’s capacity to attack.

When the war began, Iran had some 2,000 long and midrange weapons, one of the largest collections in the region, according to Israeli officials. U.S. officials have generally accepted that estimate. It is not clear how much of Iran’s arsenal remains. The country has fired off hundreds of missiles, and Israel has damaged sites where they are stored.

Israel’s strikes on missile launchers have been even more significant, limiting Iran’s ability to fire missiles and large-scale barrages, U.S. officials and outside experts said. Israel’s campaign has also hurt Iran’s ability to coordinate attacks, according to experts and Israeli officials.

U.S. bases in the Middle East are protected by missile defenses, and Iran would likely have to fire a large coordinated barrage of missiles to penetrate them.

Carl said Iran’s capacity to fire large numbers of missiles is increasingly limited. At least half of Iran’s launchers have been destroyed.

The Israeli attacks have forced Iran to change its tactics and operations. Carl said that in response to Israel’s strikes on missile crews preparing to launch weapons, Iran appeared to be trying to launch missiles more quickly.

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