Forecasters removed the Big Island from the “cone of uncertainty” Tuesday evening as Tropical Storm Hilda’s projected track continued to shift to the west.
Forecasters removed the Big Island from the “cone of uncertainty” Tuesday evening as Tropical Storm Hilda’s projected track continued to shift to the west.
However, the island remained under a tropical storm watch and earlier forecasts of the storm bringing rainfall of 6 to 12 inches and up to 18 inches in windward areas remained unchanged. The watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
A flash flood watch is expected to begin 6 p.m. Wednesday and may run through 6 a.m. Saturday.
In its 5 p.m. update, the National Weather Service attributed the storm’s westward shift due to strong wind shear that continued to hammer the former hurricane.
“The westerly vertical wind shear has won the battle,” the weather service said.
While the storm’s center is not expected to cross the island, high surf, heavy rainfall and windy conditions remain in the forecast.
“That should not change anything,” said meteorologist Chevy Chevalier, following the update.
He said windward residents could begin seeing the effects of the storm by Wednesday, with windy conditions and surf on east facing shores possibly reaching between 8 and 12 feet Wednesday night.
Sustained winds of between 15 and 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph were possible, he said.
The storm is forecast to downgrade to a depression Thursday.
Forecast tracks for the storm have fluctuated over the past several days. Earlier projections had the storm crossing the island.
Chevalier said forecast models had become much more consistent as of Tuesday.
“The more consistent they are the more confidence we have in a forecast,” he said. “I think that’s where we are at.”
Darryl Oliveira, Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator, said Red Cross and the county were identifying emergency shelters for residents affected by flooding.
He said he was glad to see residents preparing for the storm early and without panic.
In anticipation of the storm, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park canceled its cultural festival at Puukohola Heiau. Backcountry trails will be closed at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
Email Tom Callis at tcallis@hawaiitribune-herald.com.