Despite Tropical Storm Iselle and the current threat of the June 27 lava flow, Hawaii Island is expected to continue its recovery from the Great Recession in the coming year, according to economist Dr. Jack Suyderhoud.
Despite Tropical Storm Iselle and the current threat of the June 27 lava flow, Hawaii Island is expected to continue its recovery from the Great Recession in the coming year, according to economist Dr. Jack Suyderhoud.
Speaking Thursday afternoon at the 40th annual First Hawaiian Bank Hawaii Business Outlook Forum in Hilo, Suyderhoud, a First Hawaiian Bank economic adviser and professor of business economics at the University of Hawaii, based his assessments on a number of June interviews with representatives of various industries on the Big Island.
“In spite of storms and lava, Hawaii Island’s outlook continues to be generally positive, with both sides of the island experiencing economic expansion even though this growth has been patchy over time and across sectors,” he said. “The good news is that the damage from nature’s wrath has been geographically limited, and the island’s tourism and agriculture infrastructures have not been badly affected. Rebuilding will likely add to construction activity.”
In a Friday phone interview, Suyderhoud expanded on his thoughts about the lava flow threatening the Pahoa area.
“One of the things we need to appreciate from a macro view, if you will, is that the island is big and the activity we’re talking about, the lava flow, is somewhat confined in terms of its location. Obviously, the people who are directly affected and indirectly affected, we don’t want to mininimize the challenges they face,” he said.
“… One of the things that always strikes me about events like this is that people do adjust. They will make adjustments here as well. But adjustments will be difficult. Using Chain of Craters Road is not at all desirable. As a result of that, it certainly will be the case that people and businesses will relocate. It’s going to be difficult.”
He added that because Puna is the state’s lowest income district, residents there will be harder hit by the economic impacts of the lava.
“Any other space available for living is going to be higher cost. They’re going to be doubling up with family and friends, doing the best they can under the circumstances.”
As for the isle’s recent bout with Iselle, Suyderhoud told attendees at Thursday’s forum much of the storm’s impact remains to be seen.
“We are awaiting data to see how Tropical Storm Iselle will ultimately affect the island’s economy,” he said. “Although there was serious damage to Puna’s homes, utilities, small businesses and papaya farms, the good news is that the damage was geographically limited and Hawaii Island’s tourism infrastructure was not badly affected. Rebuilding will add to construction activity.”
Among the island’s saving graces in the coming year will be visitor trends in West Hawaii, with hotel occupancy rates and bookings looking solid for 2015, he said.
Construction will continue its slow recovery, although during he past year that recovery was slower than anticipated. A number of East Hawaii projects will bolster the economy, including the new interisland cargo facility at Pier 4 in Hilo Harbor and the attendant widening demolition of parts of Pier 1 and widening of Kumau Street.
Punahou Mauka residential development will continue, and the Regency assisted living project will proceed with its build-out.
Meanwhile, Keaau and Puna will see significant activity, including the Highway 130 widening, HMSA’s new facility at Keaau Town Center and Bryson Community Center in Pahoa is awaiting a $20 million project.
Email Colin M. Stewart at cstewart@hawaiitribune-herald.com.