An eruption at the summit of Kilauea volcano could begin with little warning, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported Wednesday.
Over the last week, HVO has observed periods of increased activity at Kilauea’s south summit area, with about 134 earthquakes detected between Tuesday and Wednesday.
HVO Scientist-In-Charge Ken Hon told the Tribune-Herald the increased activity, along with extensive ground deformation across the summit area, indicates that a large amount of magma has migrated toward an area beneath the south edge of Halema‘uma‘u crater.
Hon said the movement of the magma is similar to activity in December 1974, when lava broke out south of Halema‘uma‘u crater and flowed some distance down the volcano’s barren southern slope. However, he added that the volcano is not displaying the same intensity of seismic activity that occurred during that eruption.
“If lava breaks out, it’s more likely to happen in the summit area again,” Hon said. “But there is a possibility it comes out near the 1974 flows.”
Hon noted, however, that the volcano is unpredictable. While an eruption could begin with only one or two hours of warning, he said it’s also possible there’s no eruption at all for the foreseeable future, explaining that whether lava emerges above ground depends on how much compressible space exists in the magma plumbing beneath the summit area.
Inflation at the summit remains at about its highest level in over five years, and has nearly returned to the level seen just before the last eruption on Sept. 10, which lasted only six days.
That inflation, Hon said, is simply how Hawaiian volcanoes expand, with lava building up beneath the earth until, eventually, a crack propagates from where the magma is contained all the way to the surface, creating a new lava fissure.
Despite the elevated activity, emission rates of sulfur dioxide and other gases remain low.
The volcano’s alert level and aviation color code remain at “Advisory” and “Yellow,” respectively.
Due to the increased seismic activity, portions of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park remain closed.
Visit https://tinyurl.com/33bf295e for more about the park’s closures.
Email Michael Brestovansky at mbrestovansky@hawaiitribune-herald.com.