If you love a good cup of Kona coffee, be prepared to pay more for it in 2023 — that is, if you can find it.
The combination of drought, coffee leaf rust fungus and the continued presence of the coffee berry borer — a beetle that infests and destroys coffee cherries on the tree — has created what the president of the Kona Coffee Farmers Association described as “a perfect storm” that resulted in a significant drop in coffee production.
“Some farms have 50% reduction over the last couple of years. Some farms saw 90% reduction. It was really that severe for some of our growers,” said Suzanne Shriner of Lion’s Gate Farms in South Kona, the association’s president.
“It was actually devastating.”
Ironically, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, all four of the official Kona coffee belt rain gauges reported higher than average rainfall for 2022. Waiaha led the way with 74.11 inches, 157% of its yearly norm. Kainaliu measured 64.69 inches, 119% of its yearly average. Kealakekua tallied 63.16 inches, 112% of its norm. And Honaunau received 61.16 inches, 10%% higher than its yearly average.
“We’re pretty clear that it does not help with coffee leaf rust. The rust really likes moisture,” Shriner said. “It’s a fungus, so it goes crazy when we have a certain amount of rain. So it creates a year-round environment that is really hard for the trees when we have the rains like we’ve had.”
Bill Myers, CEO of Heavenly Hawaiian Farms in Honalo, said the 2022 crop “was really devastated by two droughts.”
“It doesn’t show up on the annual totals for the rainfall,” Myers said. “These droughts were very short-term, but they came at the first flowering and the last flowering of the coffee. And as a result, we had a decline, Kona-wide, in coffee production last year.
“… It’s hard to pinpoint the exact number. … But I’ve talked with, for example, the insurance companies that insure coffee crop. And the range estimated is a 50% loss in coffee crop to a 90% loss in crop last year. We’re looking at Kona side being about 60% down for the year. Our own crop is about half off.
“This has really caused a spike in the price of green coffee,” he said. “In 2021, green coffee was at around $21 a pound. It is currently at $26.50 and rising. The drought just nailed us last year.”
Shriner confirmed that green coffee prices have topped the $25 per pound mark.
“It’s a pretty big year for the price, but we have so little coffee,” she said. “When the price goes up 20%, that sounds great for the growers, but when our crop goes down 50% in a year, we’re still losing money at the end of the day.”
The coffee belt normally experiences its rainy season in the summer. This past summer was dry, however, with gauges reporting below average rainfall in July and August. September was a higher-than-average month, rain-wise, but most of that rain fell in a single day.
Coffee has a long harvest season, generally from September through February, but dry conditions starting in late 2021 caused the harvest to come earlier.
“We’re struggling a bit with it on all ends,” Shriner said in an emailed report to association members late last year. “In a normal year, we’d start harvesting in late August or early September, but nothing is normal anymore with the weather patterns. Everything is moving around on us. It’s been a problem.”
It was a rainy December in the coffee belt, with the Honaunau and Kealakekua gauges recording their highest December rainfall totals on record, with 9.33 and 7.67 inches, respectively. Waiaha was even wetter, with 11.65 inches, while Kainaliu reported 7.49 inches.
“We had some places that were 400% above average,” said Kevin Kodama, the weather service’s senior service hydrologist in Honolulu. “That’s a pretty significant rainfall anomaly, mainly from the one event, but that’s what happens sometimes.”
The event Kodama referred to was on Dec. 19, and it caused significant flooding in several locations in West Hawaii.
“When you get six inches in a night, it can cause a lot of damage,” Shriner said.
Still, the farmers persevere despite the obstacles in getting the java from the tree to your cup. They even express a bit of optimism — albeit guarded.
Asked if she thinks 2023 might bring a bigger, better crop than 2022, Shriner replied, “I hope so.”
“We’ve learned a lot more about coffee leaf rust and how to manage it over the last couple of years,” she said. “But one of the issues is when a tree defoliates, it has a hard time catching back up. So we’re hoping we can stabilize this year, and maybe climb up to a better year next year.
“We’re still in the learning process with this disease, so it’s not entirely clear how that’s going to play out for us.”
“The weather last year clearly affected us,” Myers added. “This year, it looks like the weather’s going to cooperate. We’re in our first flowering right now, and we’re getting the rains we need. So that’s really good news. So having the rain we’re having right now is a blessing, particularly after last year.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.