Recent news of Ukrainian forces deploying wooden effigies of advanced U.S. rocket systems (HIMARS) to lure Russian troops into wasting costly long-range cruise missiles to destroy the decoys provide a good conversation starter on the fascinating world of denial and deception (D&D) — or maskirovka, as the Russians say — where warfare, covert action, and intelligence (especially double-agentry) overlap.
Reports of Russian efforts to deceive Ukrainian intelligence by fielding inflatable mockups of S-400 long-range surface-to-air missiles add grist to the mill.
“What exactly is D&D?” In brief, it is the art of denying an adversary an understanding of ground reality and planting in the opponent’s mind a falsehood that benefits the sower. As a young CIA analyst, I was sheep-dipped in D&D theory and practice, defensive training to prevent my estimates for the White House and Pentagon from falling victim to such trickery.
Many moons later, as an operations officer working with U.S. military units focused on the art of deploying double agents, I was immersed in the complementary, offensive side of the game.
Let’s look at some historic examples to help us better understand this important, age-old aspect of war as we digest news about any conflict.
“All war is based on deception.” — Sun Tzu
One outstanding example of D&D in modern history is Operation Mincemeat, the harrowing details of which are entertainingly captured in the 2021 film by the same name. It was a subterfuge by British intelligence to conceal the Allied invasion of Sicily in 1943 by floating ashore a human corpse with feed material (false information) in its pocket for consumption by German military planners. Lt. Col. Ian Fleming, who later created James Bond, was involved.
World War II also saw its share of wooden and inflatable tanks, used to skew adversaries’ troop strength estimates. The U.S. Army even had a secret unit dedicated to D&D — the 23rd Hqs Special Troops, also known as “Ghost Army,” which executed nearly two dozen missions in Germany, Luxembourg, France, and Belgium. (More on this fascinating unit can be found at ghostarmylegacyproject.org).
More recently, observers of the Iraq War may recall early efforts by forces in Bagdad to confuse U.S. damage estimates by burning tires in and on buildings to simulate missile damage, a classic D&D ploy.
D&D is not limited to wartime or tactical applications. Strategic efforts to confuse opponents’ understanding of assets is perennial for some nations. For example, Russia’s use in peacetime of hot-air balloon technology to field inflatable decoys, including MIG-31 fighter jets, are well-documented, and rumors of inflatable submarines persist.
Placement of covert influence material (propaganda) into adversaries’ social media outlets is a form of D&D, and Russian troll farms’ activity during the last two U.S. presidential elections are one example seen right here on the Orchid Isle.
Use of the art form is not limited to nations. Islamic State fighters in 2016 deployed wooden mockups, some complete with mannequins, of Humvees and tanks they had stolen to misdirect enemy fire.
“What about double agents?” To start, the term “double agent” (DA) is often misapplied. Famous American traitors Aldrich Aimes (CIA) and Robert Hansen (FBI), for example, are often called DAs, but they were counterintelligence penetrations who passed national security information to an adversary — classic human intelligence sources, albeit volunteers.
A true DA, conversely, is a recruited or volunteer source used by one side to affect change within an adversary that believes the source works for them. The Jordanian doctor who killed seven CIA officers in Khowst in 2009 is one example, but DA action more often involves planting disinformation to advance D&D objectives — false intentions of government leaders, fictitious military plans or capabilities, seeds of suspicion that someone is a spy.
Operation Fortitude is one famous DA operation. It obfuscated D-Day invasion plans and can be explored online.
That’s D&D in a nutshell. You are now better equipped to identify examples and put them into context as you follow the news about Ukraine, other conflicts, or the cat-and-mouse strategic ploys of world powers. A hui ho!
J.P. Atwell is a former senior CIA operations officer. His two-decade career began as an intelligence analyst and took him to every continent, save Antarctica. He now calls Hawaii Island home. He welcomes your comments at island.intelligencer@gmail.com.