The current average of COVID-19 infections could indicate a “slight reprieve” from soaring case counts might be on the horizon, but state health officials on Tuesday cautioned that Hawaii remains in dangerous territory.
According to the state Department of Health, an average of 706 cases statewide have been reported daily Aug. 30 to Sept. 5, the lowest seven-day average since Aug. 23 and far below the seven-day average of 898 on Aug. 29.
“This may indicate a slight reprieve in the numbers that we’ve seen, but we’re definitely not out of the woods yet,” state Epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Kemble said of Tuesday’s average during a Zoom call with reporters.
“Remember that a month ago, 700 (new cases) would be an incredibly alarming case count for our islands,” she said. “We also know that there is a lag still between when we see cases and when we see hospitalizations and deaths. Tragically, we do anticipate seeing many more deaths reported out in the coming weeks from the cases we’ve already learned about.”
Kemble also said there are fluctuations in coronavirus testing, including that fewer people seek testing over holiday weekends.
“I think we really need to see how things unfold in the coming week before drawing conclusions about where the case numbers are,” she said. “In the meantime, I do hope that people have taken to heart the mitigation guidance … and if we continue to do that, we could see a true decrease in the case trends, which is going to be much needed.”
The DOH on Tuesday reported 499 new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases statewide, including 50 new infections on the Big Island. Another 756 cases were reported statewide Monday, including 119 on the Big Island.
Hawaii County had a 7.2% test positivity rate, the same as the statewide positivity rate.
According to data from the DOH, people 18-29 continue to account for the majority of coronavirus cases, making up 24% of all COVID-19 infections. Keiki 17 and younger account for 17% of all cases, and adults 30-39 make up 19% of infections.
“We are seeing more cases now than ever among pediatric populations — about a quarter of our cases at last look,” Kemble said. “Part of that is related to the overall rise in cases. So as the total number of cases go up, we’re going to see more children who are diagnosed and who ultimately end up in the hospital just because the overall numbers are increasing.”
As of Aug. 26, Kemble said that there have been 2,419 COVID-19 “breakthrough” cases, or infections in individuals fully vaccinated against the virus. That number, however, is likely under-counted.
“This makes up about 7% of all COVID cases in the state since January, and about 0.3% of the fully vaccinated population who have ultimately been diagnosed with a breakthrough case,” she said.
According to Kemble, hospitals sometimes are reporting that 10% to 15% of those hospitalized are break-through cases.
“The more we have infections circulating around us, the more breakthrough cases we will see,” Kemble said. “Because while we do know that vaccines work — they’re highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death — they don’t prevent every infection from occurring, and if you have enough infection pressure around you, because you’re surrounded by infected people, you will have some of those breakthrough cases.”
The DOH on Monday also reported two additional COVID-related deaths. A Big Island woman, 80-89, and an Oahu man, 60-69, had been hospitalized and had underlying health conditions.
COVID-19 testing is available from 2-6 p.m. today at the Afook-Chinen Civic Auditorium in Hilo.
More testing opportunities can be found online at bit.ly/HawaiiCOVIDtesting.
Email Stephanie Salmons at ssalmons@hawaiitribune-herald.com.