Waves of COVID-19
The plan being used to stop COVID-19 will fail. It will fail because lockdown prevents herd immunity. If there is no herd immunity, there will be wave after wave of COVID-19.
Younger people — those younger than 60 — are not the ones most likely to die of COVID-19. The older people and those with underlying morbidity are those who are most likely to die.
Shutting down our entire society, young and old, and healthy and sickly, is a recipe for economic collapse and wave after wave of COVID-19.
Those most at risk should be those most protected. Those at least risk should be those who can best achieve herd immunity. This pandemic will not be stopped by lockdown of general society. General lockdown only prolongs the pandemic and prevents herd immunity.
To end the pandemic we must allow the COVID-19 virus to infect those most able to withstand it and build immunity. Oh, no, you say. Look, we only think we can stop the virus with general lockdown. It will come back with a vengeance the moment we allow normal interaction of people. Why? Because until the majority of people are exposed and recover, there will always be another wave waiting.
Every great pandemic has ended when enough people become immune to the disease.
We are not talking about tuberculosis or malaria when we talk about COVID-19. It is deadly to the weak and old. It kills mainly the weak and old. It is very rarely killing the strong and young. Yes, there will always be some strong and young who succumb. That is inevitable in any disease. But the herd will survive. This disease is weeding out the vulnerable. Of course, we want to save everyone. But, realistically, that is not possible. Not even using general lockdown.
I can hear the wails and gnashing of teeth. Look, we can save nearly everyone, but we cannot save everyone. The weak and old are easy targets for this disease. They should not be allowed to be exposed, granted. But locking down the entire population is a recipe for disaster.
What we need is to triage? Triage is a necessary division of patients and potential patients into categories so medical resources are used to the best advantage to save the most people possible.
We are not doing that with COVID-19. The way it has been approached is to try to save everyone — at the expense of our economy and our liberty. That is the wrong approach. I completely understand wanting to save every last soul. But it is impractical and simply not possible.
People. Will. Die.
It is a hard fact to accept. But it is true. We must use common sense to determine who to devote limited resources to and who to isolate from the general population. Hard choices. But necessary.
Nearly all of us will survive this pandemic. Not because of lockdown. But because most of us have within us the strength necessary to withstand it and gain natural immunity.
Our leaders are doing their best to keep us all healthy and alive. They do not want to see a single person die because of their decisions. But they do not realize that this bug does not play fair. It seeks the weak and old. They must adjust to that reality and protect those most at risk and let the rest contract it and defeat it internally.
Those young and strong who nevertheless might get dangerously ill must then be given treatment that will restore them. There is a treatment protocol that ICU physicians are using that is 98% effective.
It takes courage to do what I am suggesting. It will require leaders to explain their actions to the people. The people need to be reassured that these new methods will work and that they have been used successfully by other societies.
The statistics and facts are available.
It takes leadership that thinks outside the box. It takes courage of conviction. It takes leaders who think like generals in a war because that it exactly what we face.
Tom Beach
Waimea