The county, on emergency status since the lower East Rift Zone eruption started in May, is gearing up for a possible lashing from Hurricane Hector.
Mayor Harry Kim called a meeting of department heads and emergency workers Sunday afternoon at Hawaii County Civil Defense headquarters in Hilo.
As of 5 p.m. Sunday, Hector was about 1,170 miles east-southeast of South Point, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Category 4 storm strengthened during the day Sunday, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 mph with higher gusts and moving to the west at 13 mph.
Hector was expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin late Sunday night.
“We are forecasting a gradual weakening trend as it pushes westward,” Deanna Marks, a National Weather Service meteorologist, told the crowded briefing at the emergency operations center. “… What we do have is cooler sea surface temperatures and we also have drier air. So that’s going to help to weaken Hurricane Hector as it pushes into the Central Pacific.”
Marks said Hector had “a little bit of a west-northwest clip,” but she said a ridge of high pressure building to the north is “going to keep it on that westward track.”
Forecast models project the storm to pass to the south of the Big Island at about 11 a.m. Wednesday, but Marks said there was “about a 40 percent chance that South Point might see tropical storm-force winds.”
“At this time, we’re looking at about Tuesday night into Wednesday for those winds to start affecting the southern portion of the island,” she said, and added that she expected a hurricane watch or tropical storm watch would be posted this morning.
According to Marks, warning level surf of 15 feet or higher should be expected for east-facing shores.
“The surf will be building (today) into Tuesday, and it will peak Tuesday into Wednesday,” she said. “And this week, we are looking at the ‘king tides’ building in. That will exacerbate any surf that we get.
“In addition to the surf, we are looking at (increased) wind, flooding rain and any sort of storm surge.”
She said despite its strength, Hector is a small storm.
“It’s compact, but it is strong. So these effects are going to be focused … along the track,” she said. “The hurricane force winds are only stretching about 30 miles outside of the eye, while the tropical storm force is about 105 miles.”
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Gulfstream IV aircraft is already collecting data. In addition, the Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, aka the “Hurricane Hunters” from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss., will fly “six hourly passes to get reconnaissance data” in their Lockheed WC-130J aircraft, starting today, Marks said.
Civil Defense Administrator Talmadge Magno said ahead are possible inundated shorelines causing closures of roads, beach parks and perhaps schools, adding that emergency shelters may need to be put into place. He also noted the effect toppled albizia trees had on roads and the electrical grid during Tropical Storm Iselle almost exactly four years ago. Iselle, like Hector, happened during a lava emergency as the June 27 flow was approaching Pahoa in 2014.
Ryan Brown of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, who’s here for the lava response, said FEMA has already established a staging area at Keahole International Airport in Kona.
“That provides us a space to bring in commodities — food, water and any emergency power-type equipment, if needed — to ensure that if there if there is a disaster with major impacts, we have resources here on the ground,” he said. “Our intent is to forward push … those resources here before any potential storm impact, just to make sure that we’re ready for that.
“… There will be additional FEMA staff coming on board with certain disciplines, such as communications background, etc., but we should be seamless as far as continuing support for the lava event.”
Kim said despite the forecast of the storm passing to the south, his intention is for the island to be ready in case Hector hits hard.
“I don’t play guessing games,” he said. “I just go day to day and see what they forecast and prepare for every scenario. That’s our job.”
Residents and visitors are advised to have an emergency survival kit ready in case disaster occurs.
The recommended items for a survival kit can be found on the American Red Cross website at http://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.