Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Honolulu are keeping an eye on three storms in the central Pacific — including one that could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Honolulu are keeping an eye on three storms in the central Pacific — including one that could develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
The largest is a low-pressure system about 1,600 miles east-southeast of Hilo.
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook, the storm, which is moving to the west-northwest between 15 and 20 miles an hour, is producing showers and thunderstorms.
Forecasters predicted a 60 percent chance of the storm becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday.
John Bravender, a NWS forecaster, said Monday the storm carries winds of up to 30 mph.
“It’s still a bit far out in time, so the impacts would be difficult to pinpoint, but it definitely bears watching for residents across the state,” he said.
Bravender said the Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, also known as the “Hurricane Hunters,” has been deployed from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss., to California. They’re standing by in case the need arises for them to fly their WC-130J aircraft, a modified version of the C-130J Hercules, into the storm itself.
“They’ll look to see, over the next day or two, how it evolves and whether it will be a threat to Hawaii,” he said. “And, if it is, they’ll send them out here and start flying (missions).”
Bravender said the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Gulfstream IV jet also is flying missions to collect storm data.
A second storm, described as a weak surface low-pressure system, was centered about 650 miles southeast of Hilo as of 7:30 a.m. Monday. The online forecast described the system as “disorganized … (and) nearly stationary,” and stated “only gradual development is possible over the next few days.”
A third storm was about 1,000 miles south-southwest of Honolulu on Monday morning, producing what forecasters described as “minimal” thunderstorm activity.
Forecasters predicted a 10 percent chance of either the second or third storm becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday.
“The one that’s 1,600 (miles) east-southeast, if any of them do develop, that would be the one with the greatest chance of approaching the islands,” Bravender said. “All of them, if they develop, look like they would be tracking west-northwest. They’re all moving very slowly. But the one farthest to the east has the highest chance. That would be the one of interest for people here.”
Hurricane season in Hawaii is from June to November. Although there have been no named storms yet this year, Bravender said it’s an El Niño year, meaning chances of tropical cyclones are “above normal, with five to eight tropical cyclones possible” because of warmer ocean surface temperatures than normal.
“An average year is four to five,” he added.
Tropical Storm Iselle did $79.2 million in damages, mostly in Hawaii County, after coming ashore Aug. 7, 2014. Its devastation shattered a myth held by some Big Islanders that Hawaii Island’s topography made it somehow immune to tropical cyclones.
Bravender advised residents to monitor weather forecasts during hurricane season.
“This is a distant forecast,” he said. “It could have a big impact, but at this point, we don’t know when or to what degree. So, people should stay (informed) with the latest forecast and keep an eye on what’s going on.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.