Has there ever been an NBA MVP race quite like this? Between injuries and the 65-game rule, it’s been one of the weirdest MVP races in years.
With the regular season ending Sunday, most sportsbooks have pulled odds for NBA MVP winner, but the closing odds paint a clear picture: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to win MVP for the second year in a row. He closed at -10000 odds on BetMGM (1-to-100 or an implied 99 percent chance of winning), -7000 on FanDuel and -5000 on DraftKings.
Victor Wembanyama was 20-to-1 on DraftKings, 25-to-1 on BetMGM, 50-to-1 on FanDuel. Nikola Jokic closed at roughly 50-to-1 on all three. That means it would be a shock if SGA didn’t win the award, but it was far from a straightforward race.
At the start of the season, the MVP race was framed as Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Jokic. Jokic is a three-time winner, and SGA topped him for last year’s MVP. Jokic was the betting favorite for some of the offseason, but by the time the season tipped off, both shared +275 odds.
Wembanyama joined the party quickly with a 40-point, 15-rebound night in the season opener against Dallas. After that game, Wembanyama wedged himself between SGA and Jokic in MVP odds.
Then, the injuries started.
First, it was Wemby, who got hurt on Nov. 14 and missed a month of action. Then it was Jokic, who missed almost all of January. SGA missed almost all of February.
With the NBA’s rule that players must play in at least 65 games to be eligible for awards, suddenly the MVP race was becoming a mess. If the top three contenders didn’t reach that number, who would win? Cade Cunningham was on track to be that potential so-called default winner, which put the 65-game rule under scrutiny.
Cunningham was a +550 shot to win MVP in late February with the Pistons leading the Eastern Conference, only trailing SGA (-150) and Jokic (+275) at that time. Then Cade fit in with the theme and got hurt on March 17. He fell just short of 65 games with 64 played this season.
In March, a new challenger emerged: Luka Doncic. The NBA player of the month went off for 37.5 points per game and led the Lakers to a 14-2 record. He won the NBA scoring title at 33.5 points per game and got to 15-to-1 to win MVP. He had some growing momentum as more people started to take note of his, and the Lakers’, heater. If Doncic stayed healthy and finished April strong, perhaps the race could have looked different. Instead, he got hurt and didn’t reach 65 games (finishing at 64, like Cunningham).
The injuries went all the way down to the wire, with Wembanyama suffering a rib injury in the final week of the regular season. He put up a comical 40-point, 13-rebound line in only 26 minutes on Friday, again torching the Mavericks. Wemby only played 64 regular-season games, but the Spurs made it to the NBA Cup final, which counts towards the 65 games.
For all the angst about elite players not being eligible for deserved awards and All-NBA consideration, there is something to be said for the drama of players needing to stay healthy down the stretch.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 68 games played. Jokic got to 65 on the final day of the regular season. Wembanyama played through a minor injury to reach eligibility. Doncic and Cunningham fell one game short.
With the 65-game drama settled (well, mostly settled pending Luka’s exception challenge because he missed two games to see the birth of his daughter in Slovenia in December), the cases for the players have been laid out.
SGA is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP and is the choice in The Athletic’s latest NBA player poll. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points while shooting 55.3 percent from the field and averaged 6.6 assists.
Jokic averaged a triple-double (27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists), which almost feels ho-hum at this point because he did that last year, too. No player has a greater gravity on offense than Jokic. The most remarkable part of Jokic’s stats is that he managed to lead the league in rebounds and assists.
If Jokic has the most gravity on offense, Wembanyama has the opposite effect on defense. Offenses steer clear of the 7-foot-4 Frenchman. He led the league in blocks at 3.1 per game. No one else in the league even averaged 2 blocks. He will be the runaway Defensive Player of the Year and led the Spurs to 62 wins, including a 30-3 stretch to close the regular season (before losing the season finale to Denver with Wemby and others resting).
With so many viable candidates and the injury/65-game drama along the way, this MVP race was a wild one, even if Gilgeous-Alexander will go down as a repeat winner in the history books.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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