There’s a good chance the line from the island Christmas song “Mele Kalikimaka” will happen this year. You know the one: “Here we know that Christmas will be green and bright.”
At least, that’s what the National Weather Service is forecasting for both the Hilo and Kona areas.
“We’re looking at a pretty significant drying trend over the weekend, and it should be in place Sunday into Monday,” Tom Birchard, senior forecaster for the NWS in Honolulu told the Tribune-Herald on Thursday, referring to Hilo.
“There might be some trade wind showers, here and there. We’ve been wet the past couple of days, but we’re trending back toward the dry wet season that we’ve been expecting.”
Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist for NWS in Honolulu, reinforced the forecast for a dry wet season in a Wednesday statement titled “El Nino 2023-2024 effects on Hawaii Rainfall.”
“For residents who live in areas with water supplies from ground water sources, less than 50% of wet season rainfall may be just a minor inconvenience, or even beneficial if they enjoy the drier conditions,” Kodama wrote.
“However, there are many residents, especially on the Big Island and Maui County, who depend on water catchment systems or have public water supplies based on surface water sources.
“These residents will have greater vulnerability to significant rainfall deficits.”
And while there have been measurable amounts of rain recorded at Hilo International Airport almost every day this month, there have been only two days with an inch or more of rain and 11 days where there has been no rain or less than a tenth of an inch.
In fact, just 5.62 inches of rain fell at the Hilo airport as of 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Tribune-Herald’s unofficial calculations of the weather service’s reported daily rainfall. At that rate, there would be 8.3 inches this month, which is more than the 7.48 inches that fell last December, but only about two-thirds of the norm for the month.
And according to the near-term forecast, the rain should cease or slow down considerably.
“For the holiday weekend and for Christmas itself, winds are trending lighter, the atmosphere is trending much more stable. The high clouds that have been around will clear out on Saturday, as well,” Birchard said.
At Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at Keahole, just .09 inches has dampened the sun-splashed tarmac this month.
It’ll take a significant rain event not in the forecast to match the bountiful 3.45 inches measured there in December 2022, or even the inch-and-change norm for the month.
“Hilo probably has more of a chance of clouds and maybe a trade wind shower than Kona, with the trades hanging in there, but on Monday, the winds go light, so I wouldn’t be surprised if on Christmas morning you wake up to nearly clear skies islandwide,” Birchard said.
“For folks who like dry, sunny weather, it looks pretty nice, especially Sunday and Monday.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.