National excitement over balloons last month reached a level typically seen among birthday-party kids watching an animal-making clown, not in voting-age adults of a developed nation, to include such speculation on the involvement of extraterrestrials that the White House felt compelled to make public reassurances. (I wish I was making this up.)
Now, let’s take a Pacific island minute to put this evolving espionage story into perspective for us Sandwich Isles dwellers. After all, the stratospheric dirigible downed off South Carolina’s coast on Feb. 4 reportedly was launched from China’s Hainan Island* by the People’s Liberation Army to collect signals intelligence over Hawaii and Guam, but was blown of course. (A “party” balloon of the communist sort, and it seems that Beijing did not get the memo on our statewide ban of said devices that was enacted on New Year’s Day to protect marine life). Then, on Feb. 19, the FAA alerted pilots to the presence of a “large white balloon” sailing between 40,000 and 50,000 feet 600 miles northeast of Honolulu.
“What’s going on?” Nothing new. A large aerostat reportedly crashed off our coast just five months ago, and Indo-Pacific Command acknowledged tracking an unmanned floater over Kauai on Feb. 14 last year (a Valentine’s Day gift from President Xi?). At least some of this activity likely is part of the The Middle Kingdom’s worldwide balloon intelligence program recently divulged by the U.S. intelligence community.
“Should we be concerned?” For those of us who have lived inside the cat-and-mouse espionage world, this is par for the course. A little perspective may ease others’ minds, though. Let’s start with some spy-balloon history.
In the late 1700s, hot-air balloons were new technology, and new tech has a way of creeping into intelligence applications. The first recorded flight in Versailles in 1783 was followed just 10 years later by the first documented use of the technology for reconnaissance during the Battle of Fleurus (by French forces against a coalition of European armies, and the Frogs won).
Fast forward eight decades. The Union Army Balloon Corps, founded in 1861, brought hovering surveillance to the U.S. Civil War. The devices went on to play roles in WWI, WWII, and the Cold War (Project Moby Dick — clandestine photography over sensitive Soviet Union sites — was one famous effort). Historically, the CIA used balloons to retrieve operatives from sensitive locations (look up the STARS system that debuted in the 1950s), make propaganda drops (see FOIA releases), and launch manned photographic missions from surfaced submarines.
“Why are they still used in an age of long-range drones and satellites?” Great question. You may recall our discussion last month about sea ships as platforms for electronic intelligence-collection equipment. Well, these lighter-than-air craft are just another platform, but with different advantages. They are self sufficient (no crew required), do not need refueling, can loiter above a target for extended collection times, can stay high enough to avoid commercial air traffic and low enough to collect weak communications that satellites struggle to capture, are much cheaper than modern technologies, have anonymous features and resemble weather balloons (offering plausible deniability of ownership and function), and — being slow, small and made of nonradar-reflecting materials — are difficult to detect.
Speaking of detection, it turns out that all the hubbub over these lofty craft is the result of recent radar-parameter modifications made by the North America Aerospace Defense Command. You know, NORAD, the outfit that delights us each December with its ability to track Santa Claus’s sleigh (www.noradsanta.org). In other words, we are not seeing an increase in espionage efforts, but an enhanced ability to detect extant activity.
“What now?” The story is unfolding. FBI lab reports on the “payload” (snooping equipment) carried by the Chinese craft are just over the horizon and will likely clarify its mission, and we may see other intelligence-derived disclosures and assessments in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, as our British cousins have long quipped, “keep calm and carry on.”
(*In 2001, Hainan military authorities for 10 days interrogated 24 U.S. military intel personnel after their EP-3 signals intelligence plane collided with an intercepting Chinese fighter jet and made an emergency landing. Karma?)
J.P. Atwell is a former senior CIA operations officer. His two-decade career began as an intelligence analyst and took him to every continent, save Antarctica. He now calls Hawaii Island home. He welcomes your comments at island.intelligencer@gmail.com.