European allies and “Five Eyes” intelligence partners are alarmed by the state of U.S. democracy. Using terms like “authoritarian,” “fascist,” “Machiavelli” and “Nazi,” some are taking action. The EU is issuing burner phones to officials traveling to Washington, like it is Pyongyang.
Before dismissing their concern, consider this: Multiple democratization-monitoring projects have for years given the U.S. declining grades and in January recharacterized our leadership as autocratic, like Turkey’s Erdogan. (Example? Gothenburg University’s “Varieties of Democracy” report published last month.)
Recent developments explain allies’ sense of urgency. Last month, the Oval Office ordered Attorney General Bondi to investigate ways to deport U.S. citizens to Third World prisons, suppressed unfavorable press pool releases, stripped standing executive office access from esteemed wire services, and canceled a French researcher’s and, separately, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient’s visa for criticizing policies.
In March, plain-clothed black-clad authorities, faces hidden, manhandled a female doctoral student and Fulbright Scholar from a Massachusetts public sidewalk into an unmarked SUV before relocating her to a detention camp 1,300 miles away. (Her crime? Co-authoring an OpEd, like this one.)
History and neighboring examples of democratic decline fuel allies’ worry. Presidential allies Musk’s and Bannon’s recent Bellamy salutes on public stages during political rallies sparked recollections that Germany’s chancellor used the constitution to dismantle its democracy within two months of inauguration in 1933. Washington’s recent backing of far-right parties in London, Berlin and Paris elections has stunned observers worldwide. Citizens in teetering democracies (Hungary) see a strongman’s force of will replacing rule of law and warn, “It can happen to you too, America!”
Shift gears. In the CIA, I visited countries controlled by repressive regimes. In one, my newspaper arrived at my hotel door missing razor-excised sentences. In another, hotel signs forbade me from taking international news material out into public. In a third, minders shadowed me and tested my reaction to comments about party loyalty, and arrest for quietly criticizing the premier was part of life.
In the U.S., things are not so dire. Parallels deserve attention, however. Their growing numbers alarm our own political scientists and historians, foreign service and intelligence officers, and naturalized citizens who fled repression. To understand this anxiety, pair the administration’s first 100 days with danger signs in Hannah Arendt’s classic, “The Origins of Totalitarianism.”
First, consolidate personal power. Install loyalists throughout the national security apparatus (CIA, NSA, FBI, DHS). Install minders in government departments (Schedule F civil servants). Declare emergencies to justify swift, radical actions, research invocation of martial law (Jan. 20 executive order) and suspension of habeas corpus (May 8 Steven Miller comments), remove military personnel who might oppose (JCS chairman and top service branch lawyers fired).
Use players behind the scenes to advance unsavory agendas (Miller, Vought, Loomer) and disposable scapegoats to affect unpopular public acts (Musk). Remove checks-and-balances (shutter oversight bodies, dismiss inspectors general, attack the press). Navigate legal gray areas through ambiguity (Gleason runs DOGE?).
Collar the legislature (House, Senate, Library of Congress) and the judiciary (install sympathetic judges, threaten others with impeachment, target law firms and individual lawyers, stop trials of the prosecuted who pledge allegiance (Eric Adams), pardon convicts who demonstrate fealty (too many to list), stand by while supporters target judges’ families. Turn parts of the country into militarized zones (Texas), threaten to take over others (D.C.), give policing duties to the Army and remove checks-and-balances on police excessiveness and abuse. Pare down advisers to loyalists only (NSC purge).
Next, expand powers and prolong rule. Promote “unitary executive theory,” test public tolerance for a third term, equivocate on presidential duties to uphold the Constitution and due process, consider expanding territory (Greenland, Canada, Gaza). Attack (or back) election integrity depending on the winner. Test elections’ manipulability through cutouts (Musk lotteries in Wisconsin and in 2024 swing states). Aggrandize the executive through office decorations and — currently in discussion and drafted bills — street names, military parades, portrait on money, monuments. Public display of ambition (“ruler of … the world,” papal personification).
Meanwhile, harness hearts and minds. Seize cultural centers (Kennedy theater, Smithsonian museums, national zoo, libraries). Crack down on the media (target press pools and individual reporters, broadcast licenses, public-funded newsrooms). Remold vocabulary in a Huxleian fashion (“treason” for criticism, “illegal” for opposition, “terrorism” for vandalism). Weaken labor unions, label them national security threats.
Sow fear to tap mob mentality (immigration, crime, globalization as existential threats). Cow dissent through intimidation (shock-and-awe deportations, firings, suspensions; summary revocations of clearances, legal immigration status, security details, Global Entry privileges; threats and law suits).
Promote tribalism, dehumanize adversaries, suppress people groups’ histories. Kneecap the academy (funding, accreditation, curriculum, tax-exempt status), selectively discount (and use) science according to party needs. Pit uneducated citizens against the intelligentsia. Leverage religious trappings to manipulate faith-based supporters. Highlight inequality and “fairness” to stoke populism and nationalism.
Wow. Our childhood textbooks documented these actions by infamous men in distant lands. “Never in America!” we said. Yet, here we are.
What to do? First, reflect on the proverbial frog in the boiling pot. Next, read the poem, “First They Came,” by German pastor Martin Niemoller (1946).
Then, let’s talk story.
J.P. Atwell is a former senior CIA operations officer. His two-decade career began as an intelligence analyst and took him to every continent, save Antarctica. He now calls Hawaii Island home. He welcomes your comments at island.intelligencer@gmail.com.
