Forecasters predict 1 to 4 tropical cyclones during hurricane season

A near- to below-average hurricane season is forecast for Hawaii and the Central Pacific.

That’s according to Central Pacific Hurricane Center Director Chris Brenchley, who addressed a gathering of emergency preparedness officials and media Thursday in Honolulu.

Brenchley said the outlook “is specifically is for one to four tropical cyclones — and that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.”

Hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

“Even though the season is predicted to be below- to near-normal, there is still the need to prepare. Now is that time,” he said. “Know where you can get the latest official information, and have a plan.”

The Central Pacific basin, which includes Hawaii, is north of the equator between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line.

Brenchley said the 2024 hurricane season, which had only two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific, is a reminder that even a prediction of few tropical cyclones carries an important caveat.

“We had the season previous, two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific, which was below normal,” he said. “Normally, we’ll get four to five tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific. A tropical cyclone represents a potential hurricane. They don’t all become hurricanes, but they have that potential.

“… Even though it was a below-normal season, we had a near brush by with impacts on the south side of the Big Island with Hurricane Hone … towards the end of August.”

Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed roads, causing nearly $2 million in damage.

Residents are advised to have a two-week supply of nonperishable food, pet food, medicine, batteries and other supplies on hand in case an emergency or disaster strikes.

Brenchley noted that trees can cut off highways, and gasoline can be in short supply — especially when power outages hit the pumps. He then introduced Travis Counsell, executive director of the Hawaii Bicycling League, for a word about an alternate mode of transportation.

“When disaster strikes, bicycles are often the most useful personal vehicle in some of those impacted areas when … roads might be blocked, fuel might be scarce or hard to come by,” Counsell said. “After the 2024 New Year’s earthquakes in Japan, some of the first photos and videos we saw of those devastated areas were from people riding bicycles. Even after our unfortunate Lahaina fires, bikes were used to move not only people but supplies, check on loved ones and navigate road closures.

“A bicycle can be a much more nimble way of getting around than everybody getting in their car.”

National Weather Service forecaster Will Ahue provided a summary of the most recent wet season, from Oct. 1 last year to the end of April, and a look ahead of the dry season, which started May 1 and ends Sept. 30.

“The forecast called for above-average rainfall for the wet season with a focus of significant rainfall over leeward areas. The rainfall totals, unfortunately, throughout the season were below normal,” Ahue said. “The good news is, the leeward areas … did receive much-needed rainfall. But in general, the entire state remained below normal throughout the entire wet season.”

During the entire wet season, Hilo International Airport registered 58.63 inches of rain, its third-driest total in the past 30 years.

Ahue noted that during March and April, drought conditions “did worsen over portions of the Big Island and over Maui County.”

According to Ahue, the dry season outlook is for “above normal precipitation for Kauai and Oahu and below normal precipitation continuing for the Big Island.”

“With moderate drought or worse over all of the Big Island, we’re expecting drought conditions to worsen over there … and fire weather conditions to worsen over there and continue through the entire dry season,” he said. “And as we enter into the climatologically wet season for the Kona slopes of the Big Island, we may see some reprieve over that location, but chances are there’s not a strong signal with those chances.”

Although he didn’t participate in Thursday’s forecast conference as he has in the past, Kevin Kodama — a Hilo native who recently retired with 30-plus years of federal service in the U.S. Air Force and as NWS’s senior hydrologist in Honolulu — was present and awarded the Arthur Chiu Award for excellence in hurricane preparedness.

“Kevin’s tireless efforts and years of dedication have helped protect lives and inform communities,” said Don Aweau, executive officer of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, while presenting the award. “Kevin, you exemplify the spirit of innovation and dedication that this award represents.”

Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.