Even with two starters injured, the Mets are not about to panic

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — When the rotation is perceived to be a team’s biggest concern and two of its projected five starters go down before March, it isn’t exactly a good sign.

The New York Mets aren’t panicking. It’s too early to panic. And perhaps, in the end, there will be no reason to panic at all. But left-hander Sean Manaea’s right oblique strain, on top of righty Frankie Montas’ right lat strain, only adds to the uncertainty for a team spending $331 million to reduce doubt.

All is well, the Mets say. We have built depth to protect against injury. We don’t need to sign free-agent lefty Jose Quintana, who last season after the All-Star break gave us a 3.18 ERA. We can trade for a starter at the deadline, if necessary, and figure it out as we go along.

The reluctance to add Quintana is understandable. The Mets again project to pay the Steve Cohen Tax, a 110% penalty for exceeding the fourth luxury-tax threshold. A one-year, $10 million contract for Quintana would effectively cost the team $21 million. Probably not the wisest use of dollars, not that Cohen, the owner, always cares.

The question is not whether the Mets find the bodies to cover for Manaea, who is expected to miss three or four starts, and Montas, who likely will be out until late May or June. After Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and David Peterson, the team has Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill to compete for two spots; prospects such as Brandon Sproat in development; and they have signed right-hander Jose Ureña to a minor league deal.

The quantity is fine. The quality might be another story.

Consider FanGraphs’ wins above replacement projections for the top five starting pitchers on each of the three National League East powers, the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and Mets. The Phillies rotation is projected for 16.3 WAR, the Braves for 14.6 and the Mets for 9.3.

Projections can be taken only so seriously. They are based largely on age and on-field performance, and they obviously cannot account for in-season injuries that occur. In the case of Manaea, they also do not account for the different pitcher he became after he adjusted his delivery and repertoire in late July.

The formulas, though, do reflect talent level, and the Phillies and Braves each have four starters who project better than the Mets’ best. True, the addition of Juan Soto to the Mets’ offense might give the pitching staff greater margin for error. But at some point, the team will need to lean on its rotation.

Even before the injuries to Montas and Manaea, that was a somewhat scary proposition.

Senga, 32, missed almost all of last season with shoulder and calf injuries. Holmes, who turns 32 next month, will be starting regularly for the first time since 2018, when he was at Triple-A. Manaea, who recently turned 33, is coming off a career-high 200 2/3 innings, including the postseason.

Of course, we can play this game with every team. At what point will the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler and/or Aaron Nola begin to slow down? Will the Braves’ Chris Sale stay healthy for a second straight season, and what can Atlanta realistically expect from Spencer Strider, who is coming off his second major elbow operation in five years? Even the almighty Los Angeles Dodgers cannot guarantee which of their uber-talented starters will still be upright by October.

The Mets will need to build in additional days off for Senga, who made only three starts on regular rest in 2023, his first season in the majors. They will need to proceed carefully with Holmes, who figures to be good for only 130 to 140 innings even if his transition to the rotation is a success. But their half-empty glass also can be viewed, rather easily, as half-full.

Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner on Monday described Holmes’ stuff as “amazing,” and he wasn’t just referring to the righty’s vaunted sinker. “I’m talking about his sinker, slider, sweeper, change up, cutter, four-seam,” Hefner said. “He’s got a full package, and it’s impressive.”

Peterson, in Hefner’s view, can build off his 2.90 ERA in 121 innings last season if he revives his slider to complement his improved sinker and change up. A healthy Senga was an All-Star in 2023. And if Montas and Manaea get healthy, Blackburn, Canning and Megill will be available in sixth starter/swing-type roles.

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