A Donald Trump presidency could theoretically boost military spending in Hawaii, impact relations with neighboring countries overseas and shake up health care for people of the Aloha State, some local experts predict.
The Republican businessman from New York claimed victory Tuesday and will become the 45th president of the United States in January, despite early polls predicting a solid win for Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. The upset thrilled Hawaii Republicans and sent Democrats in the deep blue state reeling.
“I can only hope that Trump is not the racist that many of his remarks would lead one to believe,” said Phil Barnes, chairman of Hawaii County Democrats in a Facebook post Wednesday. “… One can only hope that he begins to show the maturity and restraint that is demanded by the role of leader in the free world.”
“We had solid faith and I always told people to keep the faith,” said David Yonan, chairman of the East Hawaii County Republican Party on Wednesday, adding the group will host a victory party Saturday. “Because from Day One, we knew he was going to win this.”
But Todd Belt, professor of political science at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, thinks much about Trump’s looming four-year term remains unknown. Belt said the presidential campaign was “so uniquely devoid of real, substantial issues” and Trump’s stance on many issues remains unclear.
“The only way to know how (the election outcome) might affect Hawaii is based upon the promises the candidates make,” Belt said. “Other than promising the wall (along Mexico’s border) and to boost military (spending) and repeal Obamacare, there’s not much we’ve heard policy-wise from President-elect Trump.”
A U.S.-Mexico border wall is unlikely to impact Hawaii directly, Belt thinks, but any increase in military spending would probably benefit the state, which is “a large recipient of defense dollars.”
The Affordable Care Act has “brought a lot of dollars to the state for health care” Belt added, which he said if repealed, might lower premiums for some but negatively impact others in lower income brackets if the program changes significantly.
“It’s really difficult to know (what’s going to happen),” Belt said. “… The president appoints over 4,000 people into government and it depends on the quality of the people he puts in there and whether or not they have the type of experience to govern effectively. (With Trump) that’s a big unknown — he doesn’t come from a government background, he comes from the private sector.”
Alton Okinaka, a UH-Hilo associate sociology professor, agreed much is unknown but said he has myriad potential concerns. He worries Trump’s stance on immigration and statements the president-elect made about various racial groups could “set civil rights back” and give momentum to groups such as the Ku Klux Klan, which publicly backed him.
“Honestly, I also think we’ll see a deterioration of international relations,” Okinaka said. “And if he irritates our partners like Japan and further escalates conflict with the Philippines, we could see a big decrease in tourism (in Hawaii) in general.”
“And if he ends trade agreements, that means the importation of cheap goods will stop, there will be tariffs and inflation will happen,” Okinaka added. “And trading partners will see this as a betrayal and cut off importing our goods, which could create unemployment because what we do make domestically won’t hit foreign markets anymore. So, while he touts his business background he could create a major recession.”
Eric Im, a UH-Hilo economics professor, didn’t have those same concerns. While Im thinks Trump was “very inconsistent” as a candidate, he ultimately voted for Trump because he thinks the president-elect will seek advice from experts.
“I have a gut feeling that he will listen to mainstream economic advisers,” Im said. “… I think he played a lot of games to get elected and, if necessary, he even lied. But once you become president you cannot get out of a certain framework and mold for the president.”
“I don’t think he can overhaul our system or economic policies,” Im added. “I don’t think he can change anything too drastically.”
Trump received 29.4 percent of the vote for president statewide and 26.9 percent in Hawaii County. Clinton received 61 percent statewide and 62.5 percent among county voters.
Just more than 58 percent of registered voters cast ballots statewide Tuesday, down from about 62 percent in 2012.
Email Kirsten Johnson at kjohnson@hawaiitribune-herald.com.
