DES MOINES, Iowa — Rock concert rallies versus intimate town halls. Adoring groupies versus dutiful voters. Sweeping promises versus targeted proposals.
Whether Hillary Clinton is competing against Democratic rival Bernie Sanders or presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, one concern is much the same. They are outsider candidates riding a wave of populist excitement, while she is viewed as a traditional, establishment choice.
As a result, her campaign sometimes just looks a little less exciting.
Clinton has won far more votes than any other 2016 candidate. But if she moves into a general election matchup with Trump, she might continue to be dogged by questions about voter enthusiasm, especially as Trump pledges to continue his raucous rallies. Clinton’s supporters say they are not worried.
“Big crowds mean nothing,” said former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. “You don’t get extra points for an enthusiastic vote versus a moderately enthusiastic vote.”
Still, the differences are clear.
In recent days, Sanders rallied with roughly 4,000 in Salem, Ore., and Trump drew thousands in Bellingham, Wash. Clinton held a rally with over 1,000 people in New Jersey, but also spoke about family issues at a gathering with about 15 in northern Virginia.
Trump’s large crowds were good for more than his ego. They helped him power past his numerous rivals and to the verge of clinching the nomination as Clinton continues mopping up against her last remaining challenger.
“I think the rallies for Trump are the demonstration of his appeal as I think the rallies for Sanders are the demonstration of his appeal,” said Republican pollster Greg Strimple.
Crowd counts are just one measure of excitement. Polling suggests that the competitive Democratic race has energized voters, and exit polls find enthusiasm for Clinton as well as Sanders. About 2 in 5 primary voters were enthusiastic about their party’s front-runner in a recent CNN poll.
Both Clinton and Trump have negative favorability ratings among general election voters. But Trump’s negatives with people of all backgrounds are at historic highs, suggesting he may have difficulty connecting with a broad cross-section of voters.
Clinton, who shines in more intimate interactions, stressed early in the campaign that she wanted to engage with voters at smaller venues. She is on track to wrap up the nomination within weeks and is increasingly focusing on Trump as she tries to replicate the kind of approach that helped Barack Obama win twice.
Clinton also struggled with the enthusiasm gap when she ran against Obama in the 2008 primary. Obama held huge rallies and captured much of the popular imagination and enthusiasm.
Rendell said he did not think 2016 would pose the same problems because the “fear and loathing” of anti-Trump voters will drive turnout.
